Вестник МГТУ. 2016, №4.

Вестник МГТУ. 2016. Т. 19, № 4. С. 767–773. DOI: 10.21443/1560-9278-2016-4-767-773 773 M. A. Gladyshevsky, K. V. Pen'kovskaya, V. Ya. Sarlaev Morphism between the planned risks of ship operation and risks in its implementation It has been found that on the one hand operations on planning and implementation of vessel navigation route are connected by a single purpose, and on the other hand these operations must also be considered independently of each other, since the first operation is performed in a closed system, and the second one – in the open system. The target and main problems to be solved in the navigation route planning have been formulated; some ways and methods to ensure the safe navigation of the vessel taking into account difficult and hazardous navigational situations that may arise at any time and any coordinates of the compiled and implemented transition have been shown. The dependence between the current and acceptable risks (presented in the form of the Chebyshev inequality) has been received; it provides the possibility of recalculating the value of the acceptable (given a posteriori) risk taken when planning the ship's navigational route in the current magnitude of the risk in the implementation of the same route. It has been shown that morphisms linking planning risks and risks of the navigation route accounting certain constraints imposed on their scores allow estimate the time interval of the existence of correspondence between these risks. Key words: navigation route, planning and implementation, morphism of risks in operations, safety of navigation.