Вестник МГТУ. 2016, №4.

Бражный А. И. Механизм выбора приоритетных альтернатив… 766 А. I. Brazhnyy The mechanism of selecting priority options and sequence of solutions to ensure the safety of towing caravan navigation The paper considers navigational safety movement of the towed object and tugboat. Some methods of alternatives choice of decision-maker persons (DMP) to manage the safety of towing a caravan have been presented. Examples of navigation safety conditions, their operational relationship, critical and emergency character with respect to the predetermined position of the band have been given; the sequence of forming actions of the algorithm based on an assessment of possible losses for the sustainability of the towing operation has been proposed. The aim is to research and develop a sequence of logical conclusions for forming some mechanism to take corrective action when navigating the composition of the output of the towing caravan of navigation stable security situation for its return to the original settings of sustainable movement. To assess the risks of navigation functions the risk analysis method has been used, with further selection of management synthesized for towing process, taking into account the possible reaction of the "human element". For estimations well-known in the probability theory and mathematical statistics methods have been used. An iterative mathematical model of the tow caravan considering the posterior distribution of parameters caravan phase coordinates for the given cases has been built. The possibility of resource losses when choosing the optimal alternative has been investigated. It has been established that while selecting and adopting a single decision under risk, including alternatives to the losses, one can always find such an alternative which is able to ensure the management of the caravan navigational safety decreasing the probability of large losses. When operating the navigation state of towing caravan one should choose the optimal alternative that minimizes the possibility of the maximum cost, and then based on it to choose (with incomplete awareness of decision-makers) optimal sequence of controls which in turn will minimize the average loss function. Key words: towing caravan, risk conditions, selection of alternative, average loss function.