Вестник МГТУ. 2017, №4.

Тагиев Т. Г. и др. Механизм выбора решений… 696 T. G. Tagiev, V. I. Menshikov Mechanism of decision selection defined by values of utility function The description of decision selection process by ship's specialist to ensure the safe navigation of the ship has been considered. The quality of description is determined by a positive scalar quantity expressed by models of "scoring" function. The importance of choosing a reasonable solution adopted with the minimal loss or with the minimal probability of the maximum loss has been analyzed. It has been shown that the ability to analyze scorings that determine the consequences of the taken decision and the ability to make decisions in any uncertain conditions are the basic requirements for the decision-maker. The conditions ensuring the implementation of the choice of optimal solutions from a variety of possible solutions by the criterion of minimum probability of occurrence of large losses (negative scoring) have been compiled. The implementation of three requirements necessary and sufficient to ensure for the function to have certain properties has been described. It has been concluded that the criterion for choosing and implementing the least dangerous in terms of loss and optimal solution will exist if there are functions that meet the certain requirements. Accounting the probability that the ship's specialist selects "non-working" or even "erroneous" solutions, one can assess the quality of the choice and implementation of solutions, using for this purpose such a notion as "risk". The feature of the safe navigation is the fact that most of the taken decisions should be selected on the spot, but with analysis of the scoring function, which allows you to draw a clear line between the adopted and implemented, justified and unjustified decisions. Key words: safety of navigation, decision selection, minimum probability of maximum loss, quality of selection.