Север и рынок. 2021, № 1.

6. Risk o f destruction o f oil production facilities by drifting ice/ Accuracy o f Measurement by the use o f new technology). 7. Technological risks / Accuracy o f Measurement by the use o f new technology. By simulating various options for the implementation o f these risks, it is possible to calculate the environmental damage with a certain degree o f probability. The results o f the simulation can be used as a basis for the development o f a set o f measures to prevent and reduce environmental risks. 6. Discussion Our model shows that the part o f the equation that estimates the percentage o f risk is heavily influenced by the factor o f accuracy o f measurement. New technologies like submarine vessels can produce very accurate readings o f current velocity and wind velocity by sector, and they can also provide real term information about biological factors and measure the activity o f animals migrating in the route, therefore reducing collisions. We can use these technologies to reduce the occurrence o f catastrophic events. New technologies like unmanned robots, artificial intelligence, and simulations can further refine estimations o f risks and data that would not have been otherwise available. Data available by the word bank shows that the use o f digital tools in the oil industry has reduced accidents by 6 %, costs by 10 to 20 % and has translated in a reduction o f 44, 300 in pipeline spills and 66 000 in spills related with extraction operations [22], [24]. The strength o f the model resides in its ability to integrate several variables o f risk and quantifies some qualitative variables. This model can be used by oil companies to identify the strengths and weaknesses for prospective transportation projects in the Northern Route [23]. As an example, this model can direct a company to invest in more sensors and connectivity solutions to allow for more reliable operations and higher profit by taking advantage o f the ice-free routes. It can also reveal when the risk would be too high, or the company would not have enough insurance to undertake operations to cover the risks. One o f the weaknesses of this model is that it does not allow one exact estimate o f the sunk cost o f the investment on such technologies. Since investment in such technologies is generally beneficial to operations the authors did not consider that it should have been separately addressed. As an example, the use o f connectivity, cloud, and big data technologies would not be a separate investment in the Arctic routes o f the logistic expense o f the company because it would be applied to overall operations o f the company and markets for probes such as Arloc have shown that quality sensors can be obtained at lower cost [5]. Most o f the technologies used on oceanographic and geographical processes have decreased in price commensurate with cloud and data solutions [15]. There are also atmospheric sensors that are cost effective and have been developed for arctic conditions, for example AIRQino. The testing o f this model requires more data that the researchers hope to acquire in further developments. Transportation in the Arctic offers several challenges. One o f them is the high costs o f interference and degradation o f natural process due to pollution [17]. The legal costs will vary in areas where enforcement or legal burdens o f pollution are lower, however, the more relaxed legal systems expose investors to company negligence can increase the costs o f accident, as we have seen with BP after the Deepwater Horizon disaster. 7. Results 1. Problems o f production and logistic oil and Gas operations in the Northern have been defined, and explained including the intersection o f climatic, ecological, social and economic. 2. We have proposed a new model to evaluate Risk o f Operation in the Northern Routes for Oil and Gas logistics that incorporates ecological and technological factors in order to minimize risk leading to higher profitability 3. This research proposes the creation of a digital technology integrated new value creation model for Oil and Gas companies operating in the Arctic. This new model emphasizes profitability not just as a goal but as an element o f a dynamic value creation 4. This research proposed measures to reduce the risks due to climate and ecological processes that are facilitated by new technologies. 5. Evolving conditions in the Arctic that are multifactored require a multifactored approach in order to minimize human and ecological risk and increase the effectiveness o f transportation. 6. This work has shown how Ecological losses in sensitive regions, such as estuaries and fragile ecosystems can translate into billions o f dollars as Exxon saw it with the Exxon Valdez and as oil spills due 10