Север и рынок. 2019, № 3.

A. N. Kiselenko D. Sc. (Engineering), D. Sc. (Economics), Professor, Chief Researcher, Head of Transport Problems Laboratory Institute of Socio-Economic & Energy Problems of the North, Komi Science Centre, Ural Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Syktyvkar, Russia P. A. Malashchuk PhD (Engineering), Senior Researcher of Transport Problems Laboratory Institute of Socio-Economic & Energy Problems of the North, Komi Science Centre, Ural Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Syktyvkar, Russia E. Yu. Sundukov PhD (Economics), Associate Professor, Senior Researcher of Transport Problems Laboratory Institute of Socio-Economic & Energy Problems of the North, Komi Science Centre, Ural Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Syktyvkar, Russia I. V. Fomina Researcher of Transport Problems Laboratory Institute of Socio-Economic & Energy Problems of the North, Komi Science Centre, Ural Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Syktyvkar, Russia FORECASTS OF DEVELOPMENT OF TRANSPORT APPROACHES TO THE WEST PART OF ARCTIC TRANSPORT SYSTEM Abstract. The relevance of the research topic is the increasing role of the Arctic transport system in the modern economy of Russia. For the successful operation of the Arctic transport system it is necessary to provide it with transport approaches. The purpose of work consists in definition of compliance of existing transport and carrying capacities of transport routes in the European and Cisural North of Russia to requirements of the West part of Arctic transport system. The novelty of the study is the need to assess the power characteristics of the transport approaches of the main ports of the European and Cisural North of Russia to meet the current and future needs of the West part of Arctic transport system of Russia. The forecast values received by means of models or applied regression analysis for the main seaports of the European and Cisural North of Russia specify a trend of increase in volumes of goods turnover in the ports of Murmansk and Sabetta and transportation of goods across the Northern Sea Route. The assessment of current and future capacities of transport routes of the European and Cisural North of Russia is made, the prospects of their increase are defined. The work examines the availability and prospects of building railway approaches of the West part of Arctic transport system. It is shown that one of the measures to achieve the target indicators for increasing transportation volumes in the Arctic will be the construction of a deepwater seaport in Indiga Bay and a rail approach to it. The results of the study led to the conclusion that the successful functioning of the West part of Arctic transport system currently requires the construction of an appropriate port and access infrastructure to it. Further prospects for research in this area are associated with the strengthening of the role of the Northern Sea Route in the development of the West part of Arctic transport system of Russia. Keywords: Arctic transport system, European and Cisural North, Northern Sea Route, sea port, transport approach, perspective of development. Введение Наблюдаемый в последнее время повышенный интерес к Арктическому региону связан с его возрастающим значением для экономики и национальной безопасности страны. Развитие северных территорий напрямую связано с имеющимися и перспективными возможностями Арктической транспортной системы (АТС) и подходов к ней. Вопросы функционирования и дальнейшего развития Арктической транспортной системы России регулируются различными нормативно-правовыми документами стратегического характера: Транспортной стратегией РФ до 2030 г. 1 , Стратегией развития Арктической зоны РФ 2 , Комплексным планом модернизации и расширения магистральной инфраструктуры на период до 2024 г. 3 и др. 1 О транспортной стратегии Российской Федерации: распоряжение Правительства РФ от 22.11.2008 г. № 1734-р (ред. 12.05.2018 г.). Доступ из справ.-правовой системы «КонсультантПлюс». 2 Стратегия развития Арктической зоны и обеспечения национальной безопасности на период до 2020 года. Доступ из справ.-правовой системы «КонсультантПлюс». 3 Об утверждении комплексного плана модернизации и расширения магистральной инфраструктуры на период до 2024 года: распоряжение Правительства РФ от 30.10.2008 г. № 2101-р (ред. 17.08.2019 г.). Доступ из справ.-правовой системы «КонсультантПлюс». 64