Север и рынок. 2018, N 3.

A. E. Cherepovitsyn Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Head of Department Saint Petersburg Mining University, Saint Petersburg, Russia Chief Researcher G. P. Luzin Institute for Economic Studies of the Federal Research Centre “Kola Science Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences”, Apatity, Russia R. S. Marchenko Post-Graduate Student Saint Petersburg Mining University, Saint Petersburg, Russia F. D. Larichkin Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Chief Researcher G. P. Luzin Institute for Economic Studies of the Federal Research Centre “Kola Science Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences”, Apatity, Russia S. V. Fedoseev Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Director G. P. Luzin Institute for Economic Studies of the Federal Research Centre “Kola Science Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences”, Apatity, Russia A. G. Vorobyev Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Chief Editor “Ore and Metals” Publishing House, Moscow, Russia FORMING THE REGISTER AND ESTIMATION OF RISKS OF A STANDARD MINING AND PROCESSING INVESTMENT PROJECT IN THE GOLD ORE INDUSTRY Abstract. The issue of creating a register of risky model industry projects is at every modern large enterprise that is engaged in project activities and is ready to implement and improve the risk management system in the context of the project management system. The gold ore industry is very capital-intensive and risky. In terms ofvolume, it ranks second in Russia after the oil and gas industry. In this regard, the urgent task is to create industry registers of identified and systematized risks of standard gold ore projects. This article presents the results of the work on the creation of the author’s register of the most common design risks in the enrichment of gold-bearing ore, the register is formed on the basis of the developed classification of project risks of concentrating production with a description of each of the categories. In addition, the methodology for ranking identified risks and their quantitative assessment is described, the most influential project risks are identified (for convenience, these risks are presented on the scheme in accordance with their level of danger and divided into phases of the gold investment project, where they are more likely to be realized). The methodology for ranking and quantifying identified risks, described in the article, is based on the application of a dualistic approach that combines the method of peer review (by filling in questionnaires) and statistical methods (statistical analysis of the frequency of occurrences of risky events and the levels of influence of risk realization on the deviations of the cost of the investment project ). The application of this technique will allow gold mining companies to assess the risks independently, thus, they will add them to the register, as well as forecast the necessary measures to manage identified and estimated risks before they occur (which will change the outdated reactive risk response to more relevant proactive). The methodology of quantitative risk assessment in the context ofmodern project management provides project managers and investors with the necessary base for subsequent accounting of identified risks while assessing the economic efficiency of the project even at the pre-investment stage of the project. Keywords: risks, risk assessment, enrichment risks, gold processing risks, identification of project risks, risk register, risk classification. Введение На сегодняшний день инвесторы и управленцы большинства производственных компаний бесспорно озадачены решением вопроса повышения возможностей в области максимально достоверной и объективной оценки своих новых проектов. Золоторудные и обогатительные проекты в этом не исключение. Поскольку корректный учет возможных рисков является важной задачей на этапе оценки эффективности рассматриваемых инвестиционных проектов, очень важно выявить и количественно оценить наиболее критические из рисков. Цель работы заключается в создании полного и актуального реестра рисков золоторудного проекта и выявление наиболее опасных из них. В данной статье представлен авторский реестр рисков типового горно -обогатительного инвестиционного проекта в золоторудной отрасли, который составлен на основе разработанной классификации рисков. Однако идентифицированные риски необходимо проранжировать и оценить количественно для того, чтобы иметь возможность учесть их и корректно внедрить в процедуру оценки эффективности проекта. Разработанная методика ранжирования и количественной оценки с использованием статистических методов и методов экспертной оценки описана в настоящей статье. 44