МурманшельфИнфо. 2012, N 1 (19).

Ñòðàòåãèÿ ðàçâèòèÿ Ìóðìàíñêîé îáëàñòè äî 2020 ãîäà è íà ïåðèîä äî 2025 ãîäà â ïðîøëîì ãîäó ïðîøëà ïðî- öåññ êîððåêòèðîâêè è äîðàáîòêè. Íàðÿäó ñ èçìåíåíèÿìè, êîòîðûå êîñíóëèñü òåêñòà äîêóìåíòà, ïîêàçàòåëåé, àêòó- àëèçàöèè èíâåñòèöèîííûõ ïðîåêòîâ, áûë ñôîðìèðîâàí äîëãîñðî÷íûé ïðîãíîç ðàçâèòèÿ òåððèòîðèè èñõîäÿ èç 3-õ ñöåíàðèåâ: óìåðåííî-ïåññèìèñòè÷íîãî «Òåðìèíàë è áàçà Ôëîòà», óìåðåííî-îïòèìèñòè÷íîãî «Ìèðîâûå ðåñóðñû» è îïòèìèñòè÷íîãî «Ñòðàòåãè÷åñêèé öåíòð ÀÇÐÔ». Ïî âñåì 3 âàðèàíòàì ñöåíàðíûõ óñëîâèé ïëàíèðóåòñÿ ñîçäàíèå ñîâðåìåííîãî êðóïíîãî òðàíñïîðòíî-ëîãèñòè÷å- ñêîãî öåíòðà, ìîäåðíèçàöèÿ äåéñòâóþùèõ è ñîçäàíèå íîâûõ ïîðòîâûõ ìîùíîñòåé, òðóáîïðîâîäíîãî òðàíñïîðòà, ñòðî- èòåëüñòâî çàâîäîâ ÑÏà è ÍÏÇ, ãîðíîäîáûâàþùèõ è îáîãà- òèòåëüíûõ ïðîèçâîäñòâ. Ó Ìóðìàíñêîé îáëàñòè ïîÿâÿòñÿ íîâûå âèäû ýêîíîìè÷åñêîé (ïðîìûøëåííîé) äåÿòåëüíîñòè, òàêèå êàê, äîáû÷à òîïëèâíî-ýíåðãåòè÷åñêèõ ðåñóðñîâ è íå- ôòåïåðåðàáîòêà; íîâûå âèäû ïðîäóêöèè: ñæèæåííûé ãàç, ïðîäóêòû íåôòåïåðåðàáîòêè, ïåðåðàáîòêè õðîìèòîâûõ ðóä, ðóä ìåòàëëîâ ïëàòèíîâîé ãðóïïû. Íåñìîòðÿ íà òî, ÷òî ñòðàòåãè÷åñêèå ïðîåêòû èìåþò îïðå- äåëÿþùåå çíà÷åíèå äëÿ ðàçâèòèÿ îáëàñòè, èñïîëüçîâàíèå èõ ïîòåíöèàëà âî áëàãî ðåãèîíà òåïåðü ïðåäïîëàãàåò íå- òðèâèàëüíûå ðåøåíèÿ è ìåõàíèçìû. È ýòî ñâÿçàííî, ïðåæäå âñåãî, ñ òåì, ÷òî îñâîåíèå ðåñóðñîâ àðêòè÷åñêîé çîíû áóäåò îñóùåñòâëÿòüñÿ ïðåèìóùåñòâåííî íà îñíîâå âàõòîâîãî ìå- òîäà è îïèðàòüñÿ íà ò.í. «áåçëþäíûå» è «ìîäóëüíûå» òåõíî- ëîãèè. Ñûðüåâûå ïðîåêòû âñå ìåíüøå òðåáóþò çíà÷èòåëüíûõ òðóäîâûõ ðåñóðñîâ ñ ïîñòîÿííûì ðàçìåùåíèåì. Âàõòîâûé ìåòîä óæå äàâíî ñòàë îòðàñëåâûì ñòàíäàðòîì. Ïðîåêòû õà- ðàêòåðèçóþòñÿ âûñîêîé êàïèòàëîåìêîñòüþ, ìîäóëüíîñòüþ, òåõíîëîãè÷íîñòüþ è àâòîìàòèçàöèåé è ôîðìèðóþò çàïðîñ íà óíèêàëüíûé ÷åëîâå÷åñêèé êàïèòàë. Ýòî îçíà÷àåò, ÷òî ãîðèçîíò âîçìîæíîñòåé, îñíîâàííûé íà ñûðüåâûõ è òðàíñ- ïîðòíûõ ìåãàïðîåêòàõ êàê îñíîâíîì ñîäåðæàíèè ðàçâèòèÿ, ïðåäïîëàãàåò «óãàñàíèå» ãóñòîé ñèñòåìû íàñåëåíèÿ, ðàç- âåðíóòîé â Ìóðìàíñêîé îáëàñòè â XX âåêå. Òàêèì îáðàçîì, ïðîñòðàíñòâî âîçìîæíûõ ñöåíàðèåâ ðàçâèòèÿ Ìóðìàíñêîé îáëàñòè êàê áû «ðàññå÷åíî» íà äâà ðàçíîðîäíûõ ãîðèçîíòà, ãäå êîìïëåêñíîå îñâîåíèå ñ îïîðîé íà ðàçâèòóþ ãîðîäñêóþ ñèñòåìó «ïðîòèâîñòîèò» âàõòîâîìó îñâîåíèþ «êëàäîâûõ» Êîëüñêîãî ïîëóîñòðîâà è øåëüôà. Ïîýòîìó âñå îñòðåå ñòîÿò âîïðîñû: «Êàê îáåñïå÷èòü óñòîé÷èâîñòü íàñåëåíèÿ ñåâåðíûõ òåððèòîðèé, ïðåîäîëåòü ñîöèàëüíî-ãóìàíèòàðíûå ïðîáëåìû Ñåâåðà? Êàê óäåðæàòü â ðåãèîíå ïåðñïåêòèâíóþ ìîëîäåæü, ïðèâëåêàòü òàëàíòû? Îòâåòû íà ýòè âîïðîñû ëåæàò â ïëîñêîñòè òîãî íàñêîëü- êî ñòðóêòóðà ýêîíîìèêè è ãîðîäñêèå ïðîñòðàíñòâà îêàæóòñÿ àäåêâàòíû çàïðîñàì íîâûõ ïîêîëåíèé, íàñêîëüêî Ìóðìàíñê ñîõðàíèò è óêðåïèò ýëåìåíòû «ñòîëè÷íîñòè» è «öåíòðà». Íà- ñêîëüêî ñèñòåìà ïðîôåññèîíàëüíîãî îáðàçîâàíèÿ áóäåò àäåêâàòíà çàïðîñàì ýêîíîìèêè. Îò ýòîãî, âî ìíîãîì, áóäóò çàâèñåòü âîçìîæíîñòè Ìóðìàíñêîé îáëàñòè ñîçäàâàòü «÷å- ëîâå÷åñêóþ» îñíîâó áóäóùåãî ðàçâèòèÿ. Áåçóñëîâíûì ïðèîðèòåòîì äîëæåí ñòàòü íîâûé ïîäõîä, ïðåäïîëàãàþùèé ïåðåíîñ àêöåíòà ñ îñâîåíèÿ íà îáæèâà- íèå, ÷òî íà ïðàêòèêå ïðåäïîëàãàåò ïåðåõîä îò èíòåíñèâíîãî èñïîëüçîâàíèÿ ÷åëîâå÷åñêèõ ðåñóðñîâ ê èõ ñèñòåìíîìó âîñ- ïðîèçâîäñòâó, àêòèâíîìó ðàçâèòèþ ÷åëîâå÷åñêîãî ïîòåíöè- àëà (êàïèòàëà) Ñåâåðà. Äëÿ òîãî, ÷òîáû ñîçäàòü ýôôåêò ìóëüòèïëèêàöèè ïîçè- òèâíûõ èìïóëüñîâ, êîòîðûå çàëîæåíû â ìåãàïðîåêòàõ êàê êîëîññàëüíûõ ðûíêàõ íîâîãî çíàíèÿ, òåõíîëîãèé, êîìïåòåí- öèé, ñåðâèñîâ, îáîðóäîâàíèÿ è ìàòåðèàëîâ íåîáõîäèìû îð- ãàíèçàöèîííûå èííîâàöèè â âèäå êëàñòåðíîé èíèöèàòèâû. Íåñìîòðÿ íà òî, ÷òî ïîëíîöåííûõ êëàñòåðîâ â Ìóðìàí- ñêîé îáëàñòè ïîêà íåò, ñóùåñòâóåò çíà÷èòåëüíûé ïîòåíöèàë äëÿ èõ ôîðìèðîâàíèÿ. Òàê, íàïðèìåð, âûãîäíîå ãåîãðàôè÷åñêîå ïîëîæåíèå îá- ëàñòè, íàëè÷èå ðàçâèòîé òðàíñïîðòíîé èíôðàñòðóêòóðû, ïðîèçâîäñòâåííîé è ðåñóðñíîé áàçû, à òàêæå ýôôåêòèâíûõ âíåøíåýêîíîìè÷åñêèõ ñâÿçåé ñîçäàþò ïðåäïîñûëêè äëÿ ôîðìèðîâàíèÿ êðóïíåéøåãî íà ðîññèéñêîì Ñåâåðå òðàíñ- ïîðòíî-ëîãèñòè÷åñêîãî êëàñòåðà. Îñíîâíûìè ôóíêöèÿìè ýòîãî êëàñòåðà äîëæíû ñòàòü îáñëóæèâàíèå ãðóçîâëàäåëü- öåâ, îñóùåñòâëÿþùèõ ýêñïîðòíî-èìïîðòíûå ïîñòàâêè ÷å- ðåç ìîðñêèå ïîðòû Ìóðìàíñêîé îáëàñòè, îñâîåíèå ìåñòî- The Strategy of the development of the Murmansk region up to 2020 and for the period up to 2025 went through the process of correcting and modification. Together with alterations, connected with the text of the document, indicators, actualization of investment projects, there was formed long-term forecast of territory development, on the basis of 2 scenarios: moderate- pessimistic (Terminal and Fleet base, moderate-optimistic World resources and optimistic Strategic center AZRF. According to all 3 variants of scenario conditions it is planned to create modern large transport and logistics center, modernization of functioning and creation of new port capacities, pipeline transport, construction of LNG plant and oil refinery, mining and iron reduction industries. New types of economic (industrial) activities will appear in the Murmansk region, such as development of fuel and energy resources and oil refining; new types of production: liquefied gas, oil refinery products, products of chromites ores refinery, and ores of platonic metals. Despite the fact, that strategic projects have a defining significance for regional development, the usage of their potential for the sake of the region now stipulates non-trivial solutions and mechanisms. And it is connected, first of all, with the fact, that development of the Arctic Zone resources will be implemented, mainly, on the basis of rotation business and will be based on the so-called unmanned and module technologies. Raw material projects need less and less considerable labor resources with constant location. Rotational method has already become a branch standard. The projects are characterized by high capital capacity, modularity, constructability and automation; also it forms the demand for unique human capital. It means, that the horizon of opportunities, based on the raw material and transport mega projects, as the main content of the development, stipulates decline of dense system of population, developed in Murmansk in the XX century. Thus, the space of possible scenarios of Murmansk regional development is divided into two different horizons, where the complex development, basing on the developed municipal system, confronts rotation system of exploration of the store houses of the Kola Peninsula and shelf. That is why, the following questions become more and more urgent: How to provide sustainability of the population in the northern territories, how to overcome social and humanitarian problems of the North? How to make prospective youth stay in the region, how to attract talents? Answers to these questions depend on whether and to what extend will the structure of economy and municipal spaces be relevant to the demands of new generations, whether Murmansk will preserve and strengthen elements of capital – like and being a center. Will the system of professional education be relevant to the demands of the economy? The possibilities of the Murmansk region to create human basis for further development greatly depend on the mentioned above issues. New approach, meaning the shift of the accent from exploration to settlement should become an absolute priority, and in practice it means the transition from intensive use of human resources to their system reproduction, active development of human potential (capital) in the North. To create the effect of multiplying positive impulses, which are imposed in mega – projects, as significant markets of new knowledge, technologies, services, equipment and materials, it is necessary to have organizational innovations in the type of cluster initiative. Despite the fact, there are no fully functional clusters in the Murmansk region; there exists considerable potential for their formation. So, for example, beneficial geographic location of the region, presence of developed transport infrastructure, production and resource basis, as well as efficient external economic links, create the background for formation of the biggest on the Russian North transport and logistics cluster. Working with cargo owners, implementing export and import supplies via sea ports of the Murmansk region, development of oil and gas resources of the Arctic shelf, as well as implementation of cargo corridor Asia – Northern America – should become the key functions of this cluster. Giving the status of port special economic zone to Murmansk sea port will contribute to the creation of this cluster. Thus, on the one hand, transport and transit opportunities of the region, natural resources, developed industry, regional Ðåãèîíàëüíîå ðàçâèòèå Regional Development 10 ìàðò 2012 ¹ 1(19) ÌóðìàíøåëüôÈíôî