Physics of auroral phenomena : proceedings of the 37th Annual seminar, Apatity, 25 - 28 February, 2014 / [ed. board: A. G. Yahnin, N. V. Semenova]. - Апатиты : Изд-во Кольского научного центра РАН, 2014. - 125 с. : ил., табл.

N. V. Zolotova and D.J. Ponyavin J" S §,140 b) >». рЛ -Ф '4 \ ,4. Г $ ___ * PF w ith the previous sunspot cycle €orr~~ 0.02 2 abs(PF 3 4 5 >«abs(PF—) (!0:iMx) Figure 2. (a) The maxima of smoothed sunspot number (black). The sum of the unsigned polar fluxes in the hemispheres (green) at the minima of solar activity. Scatter plot compares the sum of the unsigned northern and southern polar fluxes at the minima of solar activity with the amplitude of the previous sunspot cycle — (b); with the amplitude of the next sunspot cycle — (c). i I i Cycles 4-6 Cycles IМ3 Cycles 23-24 45 Time (year) Figure 3. Annual sunspot numbers. The pairs of the cycles are aligned by the minima before Cycles 4, 11, and 23. The cycle numbers refer to the Zurich numbering. Fig. 3 shows the monthly sunspot number for three onsets of the secular cycle minima. The sunspot number values were taken from the SIDC. We consider Cycles 5-7 as the Dalton minimum, Cycles 12-16 as the Gleissberg-Gnevyshev minimum. Cycles 4-5 are shown in blue, Cycles -13, in green, and 23 and 24, in red. Fig. 3 illustrates that the current situation is something in between the Dalton and Gleissberg-Gnevyshev minima. This suggests to us that the pronounced prolongation of Cycle 23 should be accompanied by a notable suppression of Cycle 24, similar to the Dalton and Gleissberg-Gnevyshev minima. Accordingly, Cycle 24 is about to belong to the new Grand Minimum. If behavior of the sunspot activity is reflected in the polar field, then the Sun may be entering an era of global quiet conditions (Zolotova and Ponyavin, 2014). Conclusions In our work, we discuss a validity of the correlation analysis for short time series. We demonstrate that trends significantly influence the correlation coefficient. In case of poor statistics, each point crucially changes relationship of time-series. We discuss interdependence between sunspots and polar fields, and argue that correlation analysis is not appropriate, due to lack of statistics. Similarity between the current sunspot activity and those during the Dalton and Gleissberg-Gnevyshev minima suggest to us the new Grand Minimum. Acknow ledgements. This work was partially supported by the RF president grant for scientific schools, grant no. 2836.2014.5. References Benevolenskaya E. E., (1982). Byulletin Solnechnye Dannye AkademieNauk SSSR, No. 3,108 Feynman, J., Ruzmaikin F., (2011). Sol. Physics, 272, 351, doi: 10.1007/S11207-011-9828-0 FrOhlich C., (2009). Astion. Astrophys., 501, L27, doi: 10.1051/0004- 6361/200912318 FrOhlich C., (2013). Space Sci Rev., 176, 237, doi: 10.1007/sl 1214- OX1-9780-1 Jiang J., Chatterjee P., Choudhuri, A.R., (2007). Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 381, 1527, doi: 10.1111/j.l365-2966.2007.12267.x Lee, C O., Luhmann, J.G., Zhao, X.P., Liu, Y., Riley, P., Arge, C.N., Russell, C.T., de Pater, I., (2009). Solar Physics, 256, 345, doi: 10.1007/sl 1207-009-9345-6 Livingston W., Penn M , (2009). EOS, 90, 257, doi: 10.1029/2009E0300001 Makarov V I., Makarova V.V., (1996). Sol Physics, 163, 267, doi: 10.1007/BF00148001 McComas, D. J., Ebert, R.W., Elliott, H.A., Goldstein, B E., Gosling, J. Т., Schwadron, N. A., Skoug, R. М., (2008). Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, LI 8103, doi: 10.1029/2008GL034896 McDonald F.B., Webber W.R., Reames D.V., (2010), Geophys. Res. Lett., 37,L18101,doi: 10.1029/2010GL044218 Manoharan P.K., (2012). Astrophys. J., 751, 128, doi:10.1088/0004- 637X/751/2/128 Mewaldt R.A., Davis A.J., Lave K.A., Leske R.A., Stone E C ., Wiedenbeck M.E., Binns W.R., Christian E.R., Cummings A C., de Nolfo G.A., Israel M.H., Labrador A.W., von Rosenvinge Г.Т., (2010). Astrophys. J. Lett. 723, L I, doi: 10.1088/2041- 8205/723/1/L1 Muiioz-Jaramillo A., Dasi-Espuig М., Balmaceda L. A., DeLuca E. E., (2013). Astrophys. J., 767, L25, doi: 10.1088/2041-8205/767/2/L25 Mufloz-Jaramillo A., Sheeley Jr. N . R., Zhang J., DeLuca E. E., (2012). Astrophys. J., 753:146 (14pp), doi: 10.1088/0004- 637X/753/2/146 Schatten K.H., Scherrer P H., Svalgaard L., W ilcox J.M ., (1978). Geophys. Res. Lett., 5, 411, doi: 10.1029/GL005i005p00411 Smith, E. J., Balogh, A., (2008). Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L22103, doi: 10.1029/2008GL035345 Svalgaard L., Cliver E.W., Kamide Y., (2005). Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L 01104, doi: 10.1029/2004GL021664 Svalgaard L., (2013). J. Space W eather Space Clim., 3 A24, doi. 10.1051 /swsc/2013046 De Toma, G., Gibson, S.E., Emery, B.A., Arge, C.N., (2010). SOHO- 23. Understanding a Peculiar Solar Minimum, ASP Conference Series 428, edited by Steven R. Cranmer, J. Hoeksema Т., Kohl J. L., San Francisco: Astronomical Society o f the Pacific, 217 Zolotova N. V., Ponyavin D. I., (2014). JGR, 119, 3281 doi 10.1002/2013JA 019751 82