Physics of auroral phenomena : proceedings of the 33rd Annual seminar, Apatity, 02 - 05 March, 2010 / [ed.: A.G. Yahnin, A. A. Mochalov]. - Апатиты : Издательство Кольского научного центра РАН, 2011. - 206 с. : ил.

Theforecast o fgeomagnetic activity under the established characteristics ofsolar wind magnetic cloud solar wind velocity with 30 minute averaging [http://www.srl.caltech.edu/ACE/, http: // cdaweb.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi- bin/eval 2 .cgi] were used. The magnetic cloud registeredfrom ACE 16.04.1999 In Table 3 cloud parameters established at use of 28% data from full event are submitted. On them dynamics Bz magnetic field components in full cloud volume has been restored. Comparison o f full registered magnetic field components and modeling, received at use 28% data, in Fig. la is shown. Itf V> 2i 39 Points ""T...г--; т.ст " т у р * •• i to н го £ « I ... 4 s « I Я Я JO £ 0 ’ ....i.... - ^rrr: т Э : / : ..... : .... ........! 4 2 ^ : .......4 1C 30 a 40 a) „-Л b) Fig. 1. Comparison of registered and modeling Fig. 2. The same, that in Fig. 1, but for magnetic magnetic field components o f clouds received at use cloud 2 1 . 0 2 . 2 0 0 0 . of 28% data from full event, (a) Solid line - modeling magnetic field, points - real data, (b) Dst- index dynamics for 16-19.04.1999. The vertical line marks arrival time of cloud to the Earth. The analysis of restored dynamics Bz components (executed on basis of Table 1) has shown, that modeling cloud, contained in volume Bz <-10 nT within 6 hours on end. It means that such cloud should cause moderate storm. The real magnetic cloud has really caused moderate geomagnetic storm. Dynamics of Dst-index for analyzed period in Fig. lb is shown. The vertical line marks arrival time of cloud to the Earth. The magnetic cloud registeredfrom ACE 21.02.2000 In Table 3 parameters o f given cloud established at use 48% data from full event are submitted. Comparison of full registered magnetic field components and modeling, received at use of 48% data, in Fig.2a is shown. The given modeling cloud did not contain in volume Bz<0 nT. Such cloud would not cause magnetic storm. The real magnetic cloud has not caused geomagnetic storm (Fig.2.b). The magnetic cloud registeredfrom ACE 28.10.2000. In Table 3 cloud parameters, established at use 39% data from full event, are submitted. Comparison of full registered magnetic field components and modeling, received at use 39% data, in Fig.3a is shown. The analysis of dynamics Bz components has shown that a modeling cloud contained in volume Bz <-15 nT within 8 hours on end. Such cloud should cause strong storm. The real magnetic cloud has really caused strong geomagnetic storm (Fig.3b). Й Я » * ,150 Paints 28-1oj A t A J a) b) Fig. 3. The same, that in Fig.l, but for magnetic cloud 28.10.2000. 93