Physics of auroral phenomena : proceedings of the 33rd Annual seminar, Apatity, 02 - 05 March, 2010 / [ed.: A.G. Yahnin, A. A. Mochalov]. - Апатиты : Издательство Кольского научного центра РАН, 2011. - 206 с. : ил.

E.V. Vashenyukat al. that for such analysis as in the above-stated examples, it it is necessary to have data on about time o f maximum (TOM) spectra in the range o f moderate-energy SCR (tens to hundreds MeV). Sets o f TOM spectra are available in the “Catalogues of Solar Proton Events” [ 6 , 9, 10], covering the period from 1970 to 1996. Attraction o f data from these Catalogues will permit to significantly expanding the base of the present study. For the events o f recent years data of available measurements of solar cosmic rays on the spacecrafts and balloons measurements will be involved. The observed accordance spectra of thedelayed component of RSP, and the TOM spectra o f the maximum fluxes of solar protons of moderate energies, we can assume as a consequence o f unique mechanism o f acceleration on the Sun. Thus for PC the mechanism of acceleration by an electric field in the area o f magnetic reconnection o f solar flare [3, 7, 8 ] is essential. This mechanism gives an exponential energy spectrum, which flattens at moderate and low energies. Rather, probable mechanisms o f particles acceleration o f DC can be a stochastic acceleration by plasma turbulence [ 8 ] or the acceleration at a shock wave. Both o f these mechanisms provide a power energy spectrum and are effective enough both at low, and at high energies. Therefore, the energy spectra of solar cosmic rays at high and low energies coincide, although the high-energy particles come from the sun and reach the maximum intensity before the low-energy. From here also it is clear, that for the forecast o f fluxes o f SCR of moderate energies on ground level measurements it is necessary to use only data of the delayed component of relativistic SCR. 4. Conclusions In this paper, on a number of concrete examples the possibility o f the forecast o f radiation-hazardous fluxes o f SCR in the energy range of tens to hundreds of MeV, according to spectra o f the relativistic solar protons obtained by means of an author's methods from data of ground based neutron monitors is shown. In events with relativistic cosmic rays there are usually observed two populations (components) o f particles: prompt component (PC) with an exponential energy spectrum and the delayed component (DC). It is shown, that for the forecast o f fluxes o f SCR of moderate energies (tens and hundreds of MeV) it is necessary to use the spectra of the delayed component of relativistic solar protons. The proposed here technique allows us to evaluate the fluxes o f solar cosmic rays of moderate energies in lack of the direct measurements, as well as provide forecast for these fluxes in the next few hours. This technique may also find application in the created by now database of neutron monitors (NMDB) [5] which is working in real time and carrying out in a automatically mode a number o f problems of space weather and forecasting of the natural-hazards phenomena. References 1. Vashenyuk E. V, Gvozdevsky B.B., Balabin Yu. V., Schur L.I. The characteristics o f relativistic solar cosmic rays in the event December 13, 2006. // Geomagnetism and Aeronomy. 2008. V.48, №2. P. 157-161. 2. Vashenyuk E. V, Balabin Yu. V., Gvozdevsky B.B. Relativistic solar cosmic ray dynamics in large ground level events//Proc. 21-st ECRS. Kosice, Slovakia, Inst, o f Experimental Phys., Slovak Academy o f Sci 2009 P 264- 268. 3. Vashenyuk E.V., Balabin Yu.V, Perez-Peraza J., Gallegos-Cruz A., Miroshnichenko L.I. Some features of relativistic particles at the Sun in the solar cycles 21-23 // Adv. Space Res. 2006.V. 38(3). P 411-417. 4. Vashenyuk E.V, Balabin Yu.V, Gvozdevsky B.B., Miroshnichenko L .I The characteristics of relativistic SCR in the major events on the ground level. // Bulletin o f the Russian Academy o f Sciences Physics 2007 V 71 №7 P.968-971. 5. http://www.nmdb.eu 6 . Sladkova A l, Bazilevskaya G.A., Ishkov V.N. et al. (Logachev Yu.I. ed.). Catalogue o f solar proton events 1987- 1996// М., Moscow University press. 1998. 247 p. 1 .Balabin Yu.V, Vashenyuk E.V, Mingalev O.V, Podgornyi A.I., Podgornyi IM . The spectrum of solar cosmic rays: observations and model calculations. // Astron. J. 2005.V.82. P. 940-949. 8 .Perez-Peraza J., Vashenyuk E. V, Miroshnichenko L. I., Balabin Yu. V, and Gallegos-Cruz A. IMPULSIVE STOCHASTIC, AND SHOCK WAVE ACCELERATION OF RELATIVISTIC PROTONS IN LARGE SOLAR EVENTS OF 1989 SEPTEMBER 29, 2000 JULY 14, 2003 OCTOBER 28, AND 2005 JANUARY 20 // Astrophys. J. 2009. V. 695. P. 865-873. 9 .Bazilevskaya G.A., Vashenyuk E.V, Ishkov V.N., Miroshnichenko L.I, et a l (Logachev Yu.I. ed.). Catalogue of the energy spectra of solar proton events 1970-1979. //M. USSR Academy o f Sciences. 1988. 235p. 10. Bazilevskaya G.A., Vashenyuk E.V., Ishkov V.N., Miroshnichenko L.I., et al. (Logachev Yu.I. ed.). Catalogue of the energy spectra of solar proton events 1980-1986. //M. USSR Academy o f Sciences. 1990. 204p 102