Physics of auroral phenomena : proceedings of the 33rd Annual seminar, Apatity, 02 - 05 March, 2010 / [ed.: A.G. Yahnin, A. A. Mochalov]. - Апатиты : Издательство Кольского научного центра РАН, 2011. - 206 с. : ил.

Earlyforecast o fradiation hazardous solar cosmic rayfluxes on the neutron monitors data Time, ITT Energy, GeV Fig. 2. a - profiles of ground level enhancements at NM stations Apatity (Ap) and Mawson (Ma). b - energy spectra of the RSP, obtained from the NM data at times I (PC) and II. (DC). The dashed line is extrapolation of the spectrum II (DC). Points is a spectrum o f the time o f maximum (TOM) spectrum, according to direct measuring of solar protons on the spacecraft GOES-10. 1.3. Event of 15 April 2001 GLE event No 60 (15.04.2001) was associated with the solar flare 2B/X14.4, heliocoordinates S20 W85. At 13.48 UT the onset o f a radio burst o f type IV, probable time of acceleration of particles, was noted. In fig. 3 profiles of increase at the NM stations Cape Schmidt and Oulu, are shown. Arrows I and II designate the moments of determination of the spectra given on fig. 3b. As well as in previous cases, the spectrum measured at the moment I have the characteristics of the prompt component (exponential dependence on energy). The spectrum II belongs to the delayed component (DC). Its extrapolation (dotted line) well agrees with the TOM spectrum of maximal fluxes at moderate energies (up to 200 MeV). At lower energies forecast gives overestimated values of intensities. It should be noted, that in this case the maximum range of fluxes was taken almost simultaneously with the increase on NM, and the maximum in the energy <100 MeV are simply not been achieved. Therefore, the forecast based on the extrapolated spectrum of the DC o f the relativistic solar protons is quite justified. Time, UT Energy, GeV Fig. 3. a - profiles o f ground level enhancements at NM stations Cape Schmidt (CS) and Oulu (Ou). b - energy spectra o f the RSP, obtained from the NM data at times I (PC) and II. (DC). The dashed line is extrapolation of spectrum II (DC). Points are the TOM spectrum of the maximum fluxes, according to direct measurements of solar protons on the spacecraft GOES- 8 . 3. Discussion The considered above examples are typical and are chosen from 12 analysed cases. By present time we have 35 analysed SCR events at ground level during 1956-2006 with the calculated energy distributions. It shuld be noted, 101