Physics of auroral phenomena : proceedings of the 33rd Annual seminar, Apatity, 02 - 05 March, 2010 / [ed.: A.G. Yahnin, A. A. Mochalov]. - Апатиты : Издательство Кольского научного центра РАН, 2011. - 206 с. : ил.

E.V. Vashenyukat al. 10 22 23 00 01 02 0 Л 1 Energy, GeV Time, UT Fig. 1. a - profiles of ground level enhancements at NM stations Apatity (Ap) and Magadan (Ma). b - energy spectra of the RSP, gained from the NM data at times I (PC) and II. (DC). The Dotted line - extrapolation o f spectrum II (DC). Points - a spectrum measured at times of maximum fluxes (TOM), according to direct measuring o f solar protons on the spacecraft “Meteor” and balloons at Apatity [5]. In fig. 1 b solid lines show the spectra of the RSP, obtained from the worldwide NM data by a method o f solving the inverse problem [1] at times I and II in Fig. la. The spectrum I correspond to the so-called prompt component (PC), which usually has an exponential dependence on energy and flattens at low energies [3]. Spectrum II belongs to the so-called delayed component (DC) and has the power law dependence on energy. Its extrapolation to lower energies (<430 MeV) is shown by a dotted line. The good agreement with the spectrum measured at times o f maximum fluxes (TOM) at different energies of solar protons [ 6 ], according to the direct measurements of solar protons on the spacecraft “Meteor” and balloons (joint experiment Lebedev Physical Institute and PGI) is seen. It should be noted, that the spectrum o f the delayed component o f RSP was obtained for the moment o f time 23.15 UT, an hour after the start o f active processes in the flare. And the TOM spectrum o f solar protons was obtained at 4-5 hours after this time for the energies of 150-500 MeV (balloons) and >30, >40, >90, >600 MeV, at the spacecraft “Meteor”. Thus, the possibility is clearly demonstrated o f early (4-7 hours) forecast o f maximum solar proton fluxes in the energy range from 30 to 90 and 300-500 MeV.using the ground based neutron monitors data only. 1.2. Event of 14 July 2000 GLE event № 59 (14.07.2000, the "Bastille Day") has been associated with the solar flare o f importance 3B/X5.7, and heliocoordinates N22 W07. At 10.19 UT the onset o f a radio burst o f type II, probable time o f acceleration of particles, was noted. In figure 2 the profiles of the increase at the NM stations Apatity and Mawson (Antarctica) are shown. Arrows I and II designate the moments of time when the PC (I) and DC (II) was dominate in the in flux o f relativistic solar protons (RSP). Accordingly, in fig. 2 b spectra PC (I) and DC (II) are designated. As in the first case, the spectrum of PC is flattens to lower energies [7, 8 ], and extrapolation o f the power law spectrum o f the DC II (dashed line) well agrees with direct measurements o f solar protons up to energies of 150 MeV. At lower energies (<100 MeV) the spectrum of direct measurements o f solar protons is bent toward lower energies. It should be noted, that the maximum intensity o f cosmic rays of moderate energies in this case have been achieved within an hour and half after the maximum increase on the NMs. As can be seen from Fig. 2b there is a satisfactory agreement between the extrapolated spectrum of the DC obtained in one hour after the start o f a solar flare and simultaneous direct measurements of solar protons on the spacecraft GOES-IO. in the energy range from 700 to 150 MeV. At energies <100 MeV the spectrum o f solar protons is bent and the forecast gives approximately 10 times overestimated values. Despite this, there is the advantage of such forecasts, which in the absence of direct measurements can give a rather accurate estimation o f SCR fluxes at energies inaccessible to ground observations. 100